July freight shipments and expenditures see mixed results, reports Cass Freight Index

The Cass Freight Index showed shipments fell 4.8% year-over-year in July after a 4.1% drop in June, continuing a soft volume trend that has defined the freight market for much of the year. However, the picture gets more interesting when you look at what shippers are actually paying. The expenditures component rose 9.1% year-over-year in July to 3.52, a stark contrast to the volume weakness. That gap tells you everything you need to know about where the leverage sits: part of the softness stems from higher fuel prices, but the larger issue remains declining capacity, with rail intermodal continuing to gain share from trucking this year.

What's driving this divergence is a tightening truck market that benefits carriers willing to move freight. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index climbed to 152.9 in July, up 2.3% month-over-month and 8.6% year-over-year, exceeding typical seasonal patterns after a surprise decline in June. July data showed contract rates up 21% year-over-year while spot rates increased 49% year-over-year. Owner-operators with available capacity and the flexibility to operate efficiently at higher costs are seeing tangible rate improvements, especially in specialized segments. Supply remains the primary driver, with driver availability acutely tight, capacity continuing to contract, and regulatory enforcement making it more difficult to add trucks and drivers, though ACT characterizes the current rate cycle as primarily supply-driven.

For small fleet operators, the mismatch between soft volumes and rising rates creates both opportunity and risk. The good news is that if you have trucks on the road, you have pricing power you haven't had in years. Tender rejections reached 17.55% in June, the highest level since 2022, as carriers rejected more contracted freight and capacity shifted toward the spot market. The challenge is that not all freight is profitable at current levels. Higher fuel prices are weighing on goods demand, which means you need to be selective about lanes and customers. The market isn't recovering broadly yet; it's getting tighter for those with trucks already operating, while shippers face higher costs and tighter capacity access.