Cass Freight Index: Demand turnaround remains elusive

The July Cass Freight Index shows that despite falling shipment volumes, supply shortages continue to worsen and drive rates in the opposite direction, with truckload linehaul rates up 8.6% year-over-year. At the same time, flatbed spot rates dropped 7 cents, adding a confusing layer to what owner-operators are seeing in the market right now.

The disconnect between these numbers tells an important story. Total spending on freight is up 9.1% year-over-year, but volumes fell nearly 5%. That means shippers are paying more overall but moving less freight. For owner-operators, this translates to a tight capacity situation where contract rates remain elevated, but the spot market is experiencing seasonal weakness that's cutting into opportunities for those who depend on quick, freelance loads. Dry van spot rates fell nearly 6 cents in recent weeks, marking their largest weekly drop since at least 2008, while flatbed spot rates dropped nearly 7 cents with loads declining almost 3%.

The real issue underneath these numbers is demand softness that's been lingering for months. Shippers aren't moving as much freight because end-market demand for goods is flat. That's why they're paying more per mile on the freight they do move thanks to tight capacity while simultaneously reducing their total shipment volume.

For owner-operators, the practical takeaway is this: contract rates will likely remain firm because carrier capacity is still constrained, but don't expect the spot market to offer an escape route if spot rates are low in your area. Focus on locking in solid contract relationships rather than chasing spot market loads. The market isn't recovering quickly, which means competition for whatever freight is available will remain intense.